For this post I will be ranking the 16 teams currently in the playoff race based on their probability of winning an NBA Championship this year. Now, before any of you sports geeks start hating on my picks, please realize that this is just an opinion. I'm not Charles Barkley or Nostradamus, I'm just a nerd with a keyboard:
ELITE TEAMS
1.) Los Angeles Lakers - There's no other choice here at the top. Sure, the Bulls have a sure-fire MVP candidate in Derrick Rose. The Spurs have the best record in the NBA. The MoHeatos have El Gran Combo (te felicito if you got the salsa reference). You gotta take the Lakers though. They're the two-time defending champs and they're getting hot at the right time. Come playoff time, you know Kobe is gonna do his thang and the Lakers have the size and toughness inside to bang with the best of them. Pau Gasol is a future hall-of-famer and Ron Artest plays big in big games. Lamar Odom is the best bench player in the NBA. The Lakers have the most experience playing in big games and winning big games. It's not rocket science.
2.) Chicago Bulls - After the Lakers, things start getting a little more uncertain. The NBA is so top-heavy this year that this spot could belong to any one of a handful of teams. I considered the Celtics, Spurs, Heat, and Mavericks here but I'm giving a slight edge to Chicago. They play suffocating defense, they have guys that can hit big shots (has anybody been paying attention to Deng this year? Dude is clutch), they have a strong inside presence with Boozer and Noah, and they have my 2010-2011 Most Valuable Player in Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose is on fire this year. He's finding the open man with ease, hitting his jumper consistently, and as always, breaking a few ankles along the way. If this guy gets hot and puts the team on his back with his creativity, I see the Bulls making a significant run.
3.) Miami Heat - This spot WOULD belong to the Celtics if they hadn't traded away Kendrick Perkins. Hell, if that trade doesn't go down the Celts might be in the one or two spot, but that's beside the point. Here's the thing about this Heat team: nothing would surprise me. I wouldn't be surprised if they turn up the Heat (I like puns) come playoff time and ride that momentum to a title in their first year. We beat the Lakers both times this year. The Celtics did it with Pierce/Garnett/Allen in their first year, why can't we? The problem is that I also would not be surprised if we get punked by the Knicks in the first round. As Spoelstra has preached all year, this team still needs to find it's consistency. Far too often you see Eddie House jacking up pointless 3's. Mike Miller is always getting hurt and missing open shots. Our best center is Erick Dampier. Some might call me a homer for putting the Heat this high up, but you can't argue with the Heatles. There's too much talent on this team. You know Wade is gonna go off for 30 a couple of times in a series, same with Lebron. All Bosh would need to do is provide some steady rebounding and stop taking 20+ foot jump shots. Easier said than done. Did I mention we beat the Lakers twice this year?
4.) San Antonio Spurs - They are the most experienced team in the NBA. That's a very diplomatic way of saying that they are old. They've put up a great season, though. Lots of tough wins. There's no stopping them when Manu and Tony get going. They also have this guy called Tim Duncan. You might have heard of him. 2-time MVP. 4-time NBA Champion. He's still pretty good. I can see this team making a conference title appearance behind the performances of their young studs like Dejuan Blair and George Hill, but I think their advanced age and lack of a real superstar caliber player hurts them in the long run.
5.) Boston Celtics - They had to go somewhere in the top 5 right? For all the talk of Perkins and Robinson being traded, this team has a lot of veteran talent and they have a knack for turning it on in the postseason. Rajon Rondo is the best offensive facilitator in the game. Paul Pierce has ice water running through his veins. Kevin Garnett is a dominant defensive presence, just ask Chris Bosh. Ray Allen shoots the 3 better than anybody ever. The O'Neal brothers (no relation) give them a tough inside game. When this team has it going, it can beat any team in the NBA. Don't take this team lightly. They will beat you down.
6.) Dallas Mavericks - Dallas gets the nod here because they play in the Western Conference and they have the best shooting big man since Larry Legend. They hit the 3, they get back on D, and Jason Kidd still remembers how to run an offense. I don't see them making the Finals, but they're definitely not a pushover.
LONG SHOTS
7.) Oklahoma City Thunder - Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook give you a chance to win on any given night and they gave the Lakers fits in the first round last year. Factor in the addition of Kendrick Perkins and this team can open up a lot of eyes this year.
8.) Orlando Magic - Dwight Howard and a bunch of jump shooters. That's about it. Gilbert Arenas sucks.
9.) Denver Nuggets - I love the way this team plays basketball. It's not conducive to success in the playoffs but it sure is fun to watch. I'm falling in love with Danilo Gallinari's game. The kid is only 22 and his game has taken off this year. Look for him to be the neo-Dirk for the next 5-10 years.
10.) Portland Trail Blazers - I've always liked the way this team is set up but they just can't seem to stay healthy. Brandon Roy doesn't look 100% and I still don't think Rudy Fernandez gets enough minutes on that team. LaMarcus Aldridge has been a revelation for them this year but a single player will not get you out of the first round. Ask Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady.
11.) Atlanta Hawks - Sadly, I think this team has peaked already. With Mike Bibby running the point, that team was as good as it was gonna be. They still have a solid rebounder and scorer in Horford. Josh Smith can jump out of the gym and Jamal Crawford is the streakiest shooter in the NBA. Besides that, I don't see too many bright spots on this waning team.
NO WAY, JOSE
12.) New York Knicks - I'd love to rank this team higher, I really would. The idea of Melo, Chauncey, and Amare fascinates me, but it's just not happening this year. They play big against the big teams but I don't they can sustain that same kind of energy over a 7 game series. They play Shelden Williams at the Center (who?) and Jared Jefferies and Anthony Carter play extended minutes on their team. That sounds like a D-Leauge lineup. Not good. Better luck next year, boys.
13) Philadelphia 76ers - A good young team but not much more than that. Evan Turner has been a disappointment. The team relies too much on the production of Iguodala and Brand. I don't see Brand holding up in the playoffs. He's getting up there in age and he's not exactly the most dominant inside presence.
14.) New Orleans Hornets - Chris Paul is still one of the best set-up men in the game, but if I were him, I'm begging management to trade me to New York. There are ZERO title hopes for him in New Orleans. They can win a couple of games given the right matchup but you aren't winning any titles with David West and Emeka Okafor. Sorry dude.
15.) Memphis Grizzlies - Give them a point guard who can facilitate the offense *cough* CHRIS PAUL *cough* and then we'll talk. Till then, have fun watching O.J Mayo try to pad his stats so he can get a big contract playing somewhere else.
16.) Indiana Pacers - No way. Not happening.
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